Following on from the success of our Mortgage Index, we present the Mortgage Monitor. Constantly we hear insight from banks and institutions on the state of the mortgage market in Ireland, however we rarely hear from home buyers and they are the people that drive and shape market forces. Through this report, we capture those voices.
Getting the alternate view on the housing market.
1 in 5 people have considered buying
81% of Irish people are currently not engaged with the property market, 5% have left the market, while 14% are currently looking for a home . 490,000 Irish people are either entering the market or have been looking to purchase a house for the past year.
These cohorts are being partly fueled by the recent scramble to secure finance before new lending rules come in.
Irish people are obsessed with property. At Ignite, we wanted to find out to what extent this was true especially with the recent commentary on the development of a long term renting culture in Ireland comparable to housing in mainland Europe.
80% of Irish people placed an importance on personally owning their own property with 54% claiming it is very important. With this level of importance given, Government policies will need to support new market entrants and committed hunters.
However, only 36% of those under the age of 35 years old claim it is very important for them to own their own property compared to 63% of those over the age of 35 year old.
This difference suggests there is a generational change of attitude towards renting instead of buying, that those under 35 are simply not thinking about purchasing yet, they are taking a realistic viewpoint or are influenced by the reality that there is a problem with housing stock in Greater Dublin.
Expectations of rent inflation
People living in Leinster (outside of Dublin) are more likely than general population to believe that rents are going to increase nationally over the next year. While those living in Dublin are less likely to expect an increase - possibly due to the Dublin market reaching a somewhat of a price peak - with rents at a high just 6% below the peak in 2007 according to Daft's recent market report.
People expect rents to increase by 10 - 15% while those Dubliners who do anticipate a rent increase, expect the highest increase in comparison to the rest of the country with our January results showing Dubliners expect rents to increase by 15% in the next year vs. 12% for the country average.
Property Price Speculation
There has been a consistent level of people expecting an increase in house prices over the past year (70-80%), with a gradual increase in the expectation increase rate over the past four seasons.
While the majority still expect asking prices to increase there is a decline in this sentiment in January. This may be as a result of lending restrictions being implemented.
We can also see the mindset of a two tier economy forming with those in Dublin less likely to believe that house prices are increasing nationally.
However Dublin people believe that asking prices in Dublin are going to increase higher than any other region - again we see the narrative of the two tier economy.
On average there is a feeling that asking prices will increase somewhere between 10-20% over the coming months.
Confusion around interest rates
Nearly half of potential buyers expect rates to increase, additionally just over a third of potential buyers don't know if rates are going to increase or decrease.
#1 Consideration: AIB
For mortgage buyers, AIB is the bank they are most likely to consider.
Despite not being a mortgages provider, there has been speculation that some Credit Unions will start offering mortgages. When people were asked how likely they would be to consider the Credit union for a mortgage 1 in 3 people said they would, scoring ahead of mortgage provider, KBC Bank.
The buyer's view of policy changes
Focusing on buy to let mortgages, 13% of people said that they would be willing to consider this mortgage type. When we compared age groups, a quarter of under 35 year olds would consider this mortgage type, compared to less than 1 in 10 in those over 35.
In addition to this there is also some support for the maximum 80% loan to value ratio for those seeking a mortgage with 33% of people believing it will be good for the consumer.
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