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Mortgage Monitor

It has been a full year since we started collecting data for the Ignite Mortgage Monitor. In this latest version we reflect back on the 12 months from May 2014 to May 2015. Over this year we have seen changes in both attitude and behavior towards the housing market and all that goes with it.  

Constantly we hear insight from banks and institutions on the state of the mortgage market in Ireland, however we rarely hear from home buyers and they are the people that drive and shape market forces. Through this report, we capture those voices. 
Getting the alternate view on the housing market.

 

The Property Purchase Funnel - A Year On

In May 2014 the economic sentiment in Ireland was taking a turn for the positive, and as the months moved on sentiment continued to rise. This increased consumer confidence has driven a much needed jolt in the arm of the property market. People who were ready to buy a house took their chance as we can see below.

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From May 2014 to May 2015 we've seen a drop in the number of people in the property market down from 18% to 14%. It's possible that the upturn in sentiment for the year has pushed previous committed hunters and new market entrants on through the purchase funnel into the dormant and inactive segment. 

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May To May Rent Inflation

When compared to the previous wave in March, more people are expecting rents to increase across all regions. However, as seen with previous waves people in Dublin under index with regards to those who think rents will increase.

In line with the PRTB data and general sentiment we have observed that rents in the rest of Leinster are expected to increase most when compared to the rest of the country. As cited in previous waves the supply shortages and increasing rents in Dublin are causing people to look to the commuter belt.  

May to May Property Price Speculation

Similar to the rent market, the Rest of Leinster has the highest proportion of people who are expecting an increase in property prices over the next 12 months. This is up from 69% in March to 84% in May. At a total level there's an upturn in momentum for those who think property prices will increase in the next 12 months. 

Additionally people living in the Rest of Leinster region also believe they will have the highest percentage increase in property prices. People in this region believe house prices will increase by 14% over the next 12 months.

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The coming 12 Months?

Is consumer sentiment predicting a small slowdown in the market?

From May 2014 to May 2015 there's been a 5% increase among the total population who would wait to see what happens in the housing market before buying. This 5% increase is being driven by the concerns around housing supply and an expectation of legislation to deal with supply issues. In addition to this macro factors such as problems with the wider European economy and variable rates on mortgages are increasing the sentiment to wait a while before buying. Are we going to see another slowdown? 

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And finally, looking forward as property prices and rents increase we have been looking at short term solutions such as cuts to variable mortgage rates. However as a society maybe we need to look at the broader picture.

“Do you want to be a society like the US with huge divides, where whole parts of the country get left behind? Or do you want to say that you care about the whole country. It’s not about debating the past, but debating the vision of what kind of society people want.”
— Joseph Stiglitz interview with The Irish Times 25th May 2015 'Stiglitz pours cold water on Ireland’s ‘partly delusionary’ optimism'